A new data point has emerged to color last week’s mysterious claim by Chadian president, Idriss Deby, that the leader of Islamic State in West Africa (Boko Haram), Abubakar Shekau, had been replaced by an otherwise unknown character named Mahamat Daoud who was leading Boko Haram and willing to negotiate.  It was then rumored that Shekau was injured and separated from his followers somewhere around Maiduguri.

That data point is an audio tape of Shekau pointing out that he is still alive and in charge of Boko Haram.  The fact that Deby put that status in question and Shekau felt the need to respond makes sufficient cause to forecast scenarios where Shekau is no-longer the leader of Boko Haram.

On that line of inquiry, these questions follow: 1. Was Shekau’s personality crucial to the goals, priorities, tactics, and guidance of Boko Haram’s functionality?  That would be an understandable assumption but the answer is likely, no.  The Shura council made a principled decision to pledge allegiance to IS.  That tells us that this group that sees themselves as part of a global caliphate is not putting all of it’s faith in a figure head.  2. Can Boko Haram continue without Shekau? Yes.  3. How much will IS play a role? This remains to be seen but Ryan Cummings did a good job laying out the big picture on the Global Observatory blog.  He makes two important points; 1. people who say that Boko Haram is on the ropes do not understand the group’s beliefs, priorities, or self-perception.  2. you cannot rule out the IS factor.

In regards to Idriss Deby and Mahamat Daoud, Freefire blog suggested that this was a view into games of intrigue.  As long as we don’t know what Deby knows, we think it is a good guess and Shekau’s new audio tape lends to the the theory.  If events on the ground did shake Shekau’s command capability and his ability to communicate with his top commanders, Deby’s press conference last week was the best way to flush Shekau into making a move that might give insight to his location.  If Chadian intelligence is exploiting information from recent arrests we could be watching a manhunt play out.

If it is intrigue, then the bigger question is whether Shekau will prove to be an valuable intelligence source, particularly in regards to other groups like al Shabaab and IS.  Shekau is in the highest league of terrorist leaders when measured in lethality.  The temptation is to assume that removing him from the equation will quell the lethality of his group.  That is where it is important to point out again that he is ultimately just part of a larger movement.  Especially in his own mind and in those of his followers.  The organization is a movement and not a cult.  It will behave as such.